A few weeks ago, I saw Bill Nye (the Science Guy) interviewed on the subject of global warming and climate change.  At one point the interviewer (Tucker Carlson) asked Bill what the climate would look like now if humans, particularly those of us in the prosperous industrialized nations, had not burned fossil fuels and poured carbon dioxide into the atmosphere for the last 150 years.

Mr. Nye’s answer was that things would look much as they did in 1750.  To underscore how much we have changed the climate, he pointed out that in that year there was no wine produced in England.  Now, because we have burned massive amounts of hydrocarbons, England is so warm that it has become a wine producing country.

I’ll take it as a fact (without checking) that wine was not produced in England in 1750.  Nor will I dispute that average global temperatures were colder in 1750 than they are now.  The year 1750 was smack in the middle of the second phase of the “little ice age” that ran from something like 1300 (some say earlier) to 1900 (some say 1850), with a century-long break starting around 1450.  Average global temperatures were lower in 1750 than they are now, and it is likely that average temperatures in England were as well.

That was +/- 250 years ago.  What about +/- 250 years before that, right around 1500?  We have a good historical record of the state of wine-making and grape-growing in England in the early part of the 16^th century.  Henry VIII took over the English throne in 1509.  In the course of his reign, he took England out of the Roman Catholic Church and in the process put all of the monasteries out of business.

In the process of taking over the monasteries, he sent his agents (who bore the friendly name of “visitors”) abroad throughout England to inventory what the monasteries had.  Henry’s inventory found that there were some 52 monasteries with vineyards.  According to www.english-wine.com, there were also at that time 11 wineries owned by the Crown, plus 67 owned by noble families, making some 130[1] in all. (The same source says there are roughly 400 today.)

We have a good historical record that is about 450 years older than Henry’s inventory.  William the Conqueror was an astute and aggressive administrator.  After he took over the management of the English government in 1066, he compiled a record of all the taxable property in the kingdom.  The Domesday Book told him, and now tells us, that in the year 1086 there were 46 places in southern England where wine was produced. (Again, www.english-wine.com.) That would be right in the middle of the warm period from roughly 950 to 1250, sometimes called the Medieval Climate Optimum.

There must be many factors that go into deciding whether to use a bit of English ground to produce wine. The cost of growing, harvesting, and vinifying the grapes will be substantial and could be invested in other projects. Better wine can be purchased abroad than can be produced in England: the best wine in the world is produced not so very far away, in France.  Apart from matters of cost and taste, the grower needs to find workers with the necessary knowledge and experience.

Climatic conditions have to be considered as well. If the weather turns cold year after year, as it did during the “little ice age”, there is not much point in putting money into an English vineyard. Existing facilities will eventually be abandoned to other uses. It appears that English winemakers hung on during the first episode of the little ice age.  They were still active in the time of Henry VIII, but gave up as the second phase set in. When climatic conditions are more favorable, as they are now and were at the time of Henry VIII and before him of William I, it may be possible to proceed if other factors permit it. But a producer will have to take climate into account.

The Science Guy uses English wine production as evidence that the burning of fossil fuels has created unique climatic conditions. When we look at the 900-year record of English wine production and not just the period he selected, we can see that this is not so; the climate has changed during historical time, slowly, inexorably, and not always in the same direction. Sometimes it’s warm enough to grow wine in England.  At other times, it’s not.  And, we can see that humans have adjusted to these climatic changes. If you can’t grow your own, you can buy better wine from France if you have the money. Another solution much favored by the English is to drink beer and ale. Nothing like it at the end of a hot day, or a cold one.

I agree that putting more English wine into bottles is an unwelcome development.  To list it among the disasters that a warming climate will visit upon us is, I think, overdoing it.

[1] The website gives 139 as the total, leaving 9 wineries unaccounted for.